Matrixport投资研究：夏季盘整加市场交割，建议持有BTC期权并等待

Matrixport 研究院最新研究显示，近期关注的重点是：

• BTC is still the asset with the best return this year, far exceeding Nasdaq

• The US presidential election is still a positive factor for BTC, and current data shows that Trump has a higher chance of winning

• The benefits of interest rate cuts may be difficult to realize this year, and BTC volatility remains at a low level

BTC is the asset with the best return this year, far exceeding Nasdaq

Although BTC has entered a summer consolidation, it is still the best performing asset so far this year. BTCs year-to-date return rate far exceeds that of Nasdaq (+22%) and SP 500 (+16%). Judging from the current market conditions, many crypto participants tend to invest in tokens with high returns and hold their coins to wait and see when BTC will enter the market.

The US presidential election is still a positive factor for BTC, and current data shows that Trump has a higher chance of winning

U.S. presidential election years are usually bullish for stocks and BTC. Last year, Matrix on Target presented a BTC simulation that analyzed BTC鈥檚 average performance during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. In July of the first three election years, Bitcoin returned nearly 36%. Interestingly, BTC is up 39% year to date, in line with the simulated performance in election years.

The benefits of interest rate cuts may be difficult to realize this year, and BTC volatility remains at a low level

In the upcoming FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the committee may express its willingness to start a rate cut cycle in September at the meeting on July 31. Fed Chairman Powell may reiterate this view at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 23, and then the Fed may cut interest rates on September 18 or December 18. The current tendency is that the Fed may cut interest rates once this year, in September or December, otherwise it will not cut interest rates.

The benefits of the expected rate cuts may be difficult to achieve this year, keeping volatility relatively low. Even though there were often violent consolidations in previous bull markets, BTC has not experienced a 20% volatility in the past 30 days. The Fed has successfully prevented BTC from falling further through effective communication.

Mt.Gox tokens were transferred multiple times, and the market was clearly panicking about selling

Mt.Gox started the repayment process, and there have been several suspected transfers of Mt.Gox tokens in recent days, causing panic in the market about selling them; at the same time, the transfer of assets by the US and German governments has caused panic to escalate: on-chain data shows that the German government has recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges; according to Arkham information, the US government wallet address (starting with 349 c 6) transferred 237 BTC to the address starting with bc 1 qvc on July 4, equivalent to about $13.67 million. The market shipment information is superimposed, and the BTC price fluctuates violently in a short period of time.

Although monetary policy and the US presidential election are seen as positive factors, investing in options, holding a small amount of risky assets, and investing in treasury-linked tokens to earn high returns are still the best options.

上述部分观点来自Matrix on Target。 联系我们 获取Matrix on Target的完整报告。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 对基于本内容提供的信息做出的任何投资决策不承担任何责任。

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: Summer consolidation plus market delivery, it is recommended to hold BTC options and wait for the positive effects of the US election to materialize

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