The Fed is hawkish, the US dollar index hits a three-year low, and BTC maintains a rebound trend (04.14~04.20)

이 보고서에 언급된 시장, 프로젝트, 통화 등에 대한 정보, 의견 및 판단은 참고용일 뿐이며, 어떠한 투자 조언도 구성하지 않습니다.

This week, BTC opened at $83,733.07 and closed at $85,177.34, up 1.72% for the week, with an amplitude of 4.06%, achieving a rebound for two consecutive weeks, but the market lacked confidence in the upward trend and the trading volume shrank significantly. BTC prices have been running outside the downward channel for the second consecutive week, testing the 200-day moving average, an important technical indicator.

Trumps reciprocal tariff war is officially in the second phase – negotiation. He started preliminary negotiations with Japan, but the results were not as expected, which made the Trump administration inevitably face a dilemma. The main target is a tough counterattack, and the secondary targets have become tougher. Moreover, these countries are very clear, trading time for space. In fact, when the United States goes to war with the world on tariffs, it is also under unprecedented pressure.

This Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech saying, At this point, we are fully capable of waiting for clearer news before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. The Federal Reserves unchanged response to the changes in the tariff war has brought the triple pressure of stocks, bonds, and currencies back to Washington.

Trump urged for a rate cut three times a day and began considering removing Powell.

But before this action makes a real breakthrough, we prefer to believe that politics, economics and markets will first operate along rational paths in the medium and long term.

Policy, macro-finance and economic data

In terms of the tariff war, the United States has not made any substantial progress in its preliminary negotiations with Japan. On the contrary, the Japanese Prime Ministers public speech before the talks was very hawkish. After Chinas tough countermeasures, more countries are still lining up to negotiate with the United States, but they also realize that the situation of the United States is not as good as it claims.

Consumer confidence remains low, and businesses are unclear about how to plan production. Without any assistance from Washington or the Federal Reserve, a stunned Wall Street continues to sell long positions and reduce trading.

In the four trading days of the week, the Nasdaq, SP 500 and Dow Jones indices all fell continuously, recording weekly declines of 2.62%, 1.5% and 1.33% respectively, and trading volumes showed a clear downward trend.

The bond market is also in a bad state. The yield on 2-year treasury bonds continued to fall to 3.7580%, and the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 4.4960%, still at a high level. The risk in the bond market is obviously in long-term treasury bonds. The momentum of a sharp rise of 11.25% last week shows that liquidity has become critical amid the sharp sell-off.

The US dollar index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, falling to 99.171% this week. Funds are flowing out of the United States and into Europe. The decline in the US dollar index is the result of the stock market falling and the bond market failing to absorb the outflow of funds. Capital outflow is the last thing the United States wants to see.

Powell and other Fed officials were generally consistent in their statements that the economy has not yet deteriorated, that tariffs will bring huge uncertainty to the path of reducing inflation and economic development, and that the Fed will remain on hold until the situation becomes clearer.

The Feds hawkish remarks cut off the markets fantasy of a temporary interest rate cut to save the market. As of the weekend, the CME FedWatch dashboard showed that the probability of a rate cut in May had fallen to 14.4%. After the Feds intervention expectations, the market is currently inclined to believe that the Fed will make its first rate cut in June, with a probability of 70.2%, and will cut interest rates four times throughout the year.

Selling pressure and selling

The selling pressure on the long and short bracelets continued to weaken this week, falling sharply from last week. The total weekly on-chain selling volume fell to 107,810.75 pieces, of which 103,713.35 pieces were short-handed and 4,097.4 pieces were long-handed. The outflow from the exchange continued, reaching 19,467.31 pieces this week.

Statistics on the scale of long and short selling

Currently, the long-term group is still playing a stabilizing role, and this week they have increased their holdings by nearly 100,000 coins. With the price rebound, the overall floating loss level of the short-term group will reach 8%.

Funds In and Out

In terms of funds, the stablecoin channel achieved the highest weekly inflow since January, exceeding US$950 million. The ETF channel is seeing an inflow of more than US$10 million, and BTC has continued to outperform the Nasdaq recently.

사이클 지표

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.125, and the market is in an upward relay period.

EMC Labs was founded by 암호화폐 asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

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