Matrixport Market Observation: BTC price rebounds, macro expectations and risk aversion drive market warming

Last week, as the positive information released by tariffs eased some market anxiety, BTC prices fluctuated upward and market sentiment shifted from panic to cautious optimism.

On April 8, the BTC price opened at $79,163.24, and on the 9th it touched a low of $74,620 before opening an upward channel. On the 13th, influenced by the positive speech of Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, the market sentiment rebounded, and the BTC price rose to $86,100 at its highest. The current price is stable at around $85,000, with a maximum increase of 15.38% within the week. The trend of ETH is basically consistent with that of BTC, and is currently stable at around $1,600, with a maximum increase of 22.12% within the week (data source: Binance spot, April 15, 14:30).

The market gradually adapted to the adjustment of macroeconomic and monetary policies. After two weeks of fluctuations, the three major stock indexes all rebounded. As of the close of April 14, the three major US stock indexes all rose by nearly 1%. However, the US dollar continued to weaken and the exchange rate generally fell.

시장 Interpretation

BTC sentiment rebounded after volatility, and the market responded positively to expectations of tariff easing

On April 14, BTC rose 1.6% to nearly $85,000, and ETH rose 2.7% to $1,630. The CoinDesk 20 index rose 1.2%, mainly driven by SOL and AVAX. On-chain data shows that BTC network activity and liquidity continue to improve. Swissblock pointed out that the current liquidity indicator is above the key level, and there may be room for price upside in the short term.

In early April, Trump announced retaliatory tariffs and suspended new tariffs on other countries that had not yet issued counter-sanction policies, causing sharp fluctuations in the market in the short term. BTC was under pressure for a while, but stabilized and rebounded after several days of volatility. The current price is stable around $85,000, and the lower point has been significantly repaired.

After the initial panic, market sentiment gradually turned to cautious optimism. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs trigger an economic slowdown, he would support an earlier rate cut. Inflation fell back to 2.4%, which also provided room for loose policies. The EU postponed the imposition of tariffs on the US, further easing external pressure.

U.S. debt turmoil triggers systemic concerns, BTC may be favored by safe-haven funds

On April 14, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.49%, the largest weekly increase in 20 years. Trumps high tariff policy triggered a sell-off, and U.S. bonds and stocks fell simultaneously, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold and the yen. The U.S. dollar was under pressure, and the markets belief in the risk-free asset status of U.S. bonds was shaken.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. bond market is approaching chaos and that the Federal Reserve may be forced to intervene if liquidity deteriorates further. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve often only intervenes when it starts to panic.

Referring to the crisis background in 2020, BTC received capital inflows when the Federal Reserve massively eased monetary policy. If the financial system is under pressure again, BTC may benefit from its non-sovereign attributes again.

ETH annual supply growth of 0.805%, deflation target still not achieved

As of April 13, the annualized supply growth rate of ETH was 0.805%, with a net increase of approximately 3.47 million ETH. Although EIP-1559 has destroyed more than 4.58 million ETH in total, the current total supply is 120.69 million ETH.

In terms of ecological competition, Solanas market share continues to increase, and the number of active users on the chain far exceeds that of the ETH main network. RWA projects have migrated to chains such as Polygon, exacerbating the outflow of ETH value.

Currently, ETH faces challenges such as high inflation, unattractive staking returns (3.2% annualized vs. the Federal Reserve rate of 5.25%), a reduction in validators, and regulatory restrictions (such as the SECs restrictions on ETH staking ETF participation). The low activity of the main network makes it difficult to achieve deflationary goals.

Market Hotspots

US CPI in March was lower than expected, and the slowdown in inflation intensified the Feds policy game

On April 10, the U.S. CPI annual rate for March was 2.4%, lower than the previous value of 2.8% and the market expectation of 2.5%; the core CPI fell to 2.8%, the lowest since 2023.

The Federal Reserve is weighing a rate cut to counter the risk of economic slowdown caused by Trumps tariff policy. As the current policy game intensifies, the uncertainty of the interest rate path will continue to dominate market expectations.

Trumps tariff adjustment sends a signal that the technology and encryption industries will benefit in the short term

On April 13, the Trump administration announced the exemption of import tariffs on smartphones, laptops, chips and semiconductor equipment, aiming to balance inflationary pressure and supply chain security. Manufacturers such as TSMC benefited from the exemption of equipment tariffs, the cost of 암호화폐 mining machines and on-chain infrastructure decreased, and market risk appetite rebounded.

Waller says tariff inflation may be temporary, Fed may review inflation path

On April 14, Fed Governor Waller said that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term and that there is still uncertainty about the policy path. He reiterated that he would consider an earlier and larger interest rate cut when the risk of economic slowdown increases.

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