Crypto market macro research report: In the post-bull market era, the shadow of the trade war is gradually fading, and t

Chapter 1: Global Crypto Mercado Landscape in the Post-Bull Market Era

Since the first half of 2025, the cripto market has entered the post-bull market stage, showing the characteristics of high-level fluctuations and structural differentiation. Although Bitcoin successfully hit a new high driven by the halving cycle, it immediately entered a correction channel. Coupled with the fact that the Federal Reserves monetary policy did not turn to easing as expected and the intensification of Sino-US trade tensions, the crypto market was once again shrouded in the shadow of macro uncertainty.

The market during this period was not a bear market in the traditional sense, nor did it continue the large-scale rise in the bull market, but was in a transition zone after the peak of the cycle. Risk appetite declined and capital activity weakened, but there was no systemic liquidity crisis like that in 2022. Core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum still have institutional demand for increased allocations, and although the on-chain activity has declined slightly, it has not deteriorated significantly. At the same time, some new narrative sectors such as AI chain, Restaking, and meme coin ecology continue to attract hot money games, presenting a situation of strong themes in weak market conditions.

From a macro perspective, in the first half of 2025, the global economy presents a complex state of unstable deflation and growth pressure. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance in a high-interest rate environment. The market is divided on whether it will start to cut interest rates this year. The uncertainty of the interest rate path continues to suppress the upside of risky assets. A new round of trade frictions between China and the United States over new energy, high technology, and digital infrastructure has become a new variable. Although crypto assets are not directly involved, geopolitical risks have increased market volatility and also posed additional interference to investor sentiment.

However, it is worth noting that the degree of globalization and anti-interference ability of the crypto industry have been significantly enhanced compared with the past. Hong Kong, Japan, the UAE and other jurisdictions have successively issued supportive policies in 2024 to promote the launch of crypto ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin supervision, and the acceleration of Web3 sandbox operation, providing a clearer compliance participation path for traditional funds. This international support trend has partially offset the negative impact of the tightening of US supervision, and also made the overall market ecology present a pattern of local downturn and global balance.

In general, the post-bull market is not the end of the bull market, but a new stage – the market places more emphasis on value judgment, users place more emphasis on practical scenarios, and funds tend to be more long-term. In the short term, macro variables will still dominate market expectations, but in the medium and long term, the market is in a critical period of transition to the next round of technology-application resonance cycle. Only in the diversified evolution of the global pattern, finding sectors and targets with certain growth is the core logic of the post-bull market era.

Chapter 2: The gradual decline of the shadow of the trade war and its macroeconomic impact

In the first half of 2025, the trade friction between China and the United States has become an important disturbance factor in the global market, especially in the context of the approaching US election and intensified policy games, involving multiple sensitive areas such as new energy, AI chips, key rare earths, and digital technology export controls. However, compared with the peak of the trade war from 2018 to 2020, this round of trade disputes is more symbolic, and its actual economic impact and long-term structural impact are relatively mild, showing the characteristics of gradually declining.

On the one hand, the intensity of the new round of tariff increases in the United States is obviously limited by domestic inflationary pressure and voter interests. Against the backdrop of high interest rates and high prices, a large-scale increase in tariffs on Chinese goods will further push up import prices and weaken the momentum of consumer recovery. Therefore, the Biden administrations use of tariff tools in the election year is more inclined to tactical statement operations rather than comprehensive strategic upgrades. China continues to exercise rational restraint, with the goal of stabilizing exports and attracting foreign investment, and has not carried out large-scale reciprocal countermeasures, leaving the overall trade friction in a state of limited confrontation.

From the perspective of macro data, although the disturbance of Sino-US trade friction has caused a short-term rise in risk aversion, it has not led to a reassessment of systemic risks in the global financial market. The SP 500 and Nasdaq indexes quickly stabilized after the shock, and the US dollar index and gold maintained strong fluctuations, indicating that market participants broad expectations for this round of trade disputes have been reflected in prices. The crypto market also quickly recovered after a brief decline, and its overall stress resistance has been significantly enhanced compared with the past.

For the crypto market, the indirect impact of the trade war is mainly reflected in three aspects:

First, risk appetite shrinks in the short term. Trade tensions will temporarily hit market confidence, triggering the strengthening of safe-haven assets (such as gold and US bonds), while high-volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies are prone to become liquidity reservoirs that are sold off. Second, cross-border capital flows are deformed. Trade and technology sanctions are often accompanied by strengthened financial scrutiny and cross-border payment supervision, causing some funds to begin to transfer on-chain through stablecoins, BTC, etc., stimulating the increase in on-chain transaction volume and driving the interest of some Asian markets in crypto assets. Third, the trend of de-dollarization in the medium and long term is strengthened. Trade frictions have intensified the doubts of emerging market countries about the stability of the US dollar system. More and more countries are exploring cross-border settlement paths for digital currencies and tokenized assets, which has indirectly enhanced the strategic position of public chains such as Ethereum in the global financial infrastructure.

It is worth noting that since Q2 2025, as global inflation has gradually fallen, central banks in Europe and Asia have begun to plan interest rate cuts, expectations of a Fed shift have gradually increased, and trade negotiations have returned to rationality, the crypto markets sensitivity to geopolitical frictions is declining. The return to stability of net inflows of Bitcoin ETFs indicates that institutional investors have gradually viewed trade risks as background fluctuations rather than decisive variables.

In general, although this round of trade war has caused temporary disturbances in sentiment, its actual impact on the crypto market has been significantly weakened. The global macro environment is undergoing a transition from the end of tightening to mild recovery, and the risk pricing logic of the crypto market is also transitioning from geopolitical tension to interest rate inflection point. At this stage, the importance of macroeconomic impacts cannot be ignored, but the real driving force of the market may be quietly returning to the internal cycle of technological innovation and on-chain ecological evolution.

Chapter 3: Potential drivers of a market rebound in the second half of the year

After being suppressed by factors such as the global macro environment, trade frictions, and crypto regulatory policies in the first half of 2025, the crypto market has seen a series of rebound signals. The potential for a rebound in the second half of the year is mainly due to the following key driving factors, which work together to bring the possibility of recovery to the crypto market.

3.1. Changes in the interest rate cycle and the recovery of risk appetite

In the first half of 2025, the global economy gradually got rid of the high inflation situation after the epidemic, and major central banks gradually adjusted their monetary policies. In particular, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes. The market generally expected that the interest rate cut cycle would begin in the second half of the year. This trend has a particularly far-reaching impact on the crypto market. First, a low interest rate environment usually reduces the rate of return of traditional financial assets, further promoting the flow of funds to high-risk and high-return asset classes. Secondly, the interest rate cuts may cause institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to re-increase their allocation of crypto assets while seeking higher returns, thereby driving up the prices of major crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In addition, as the US government and other global economies strive to stimulate economic vitality through monetary easing policies, the crypto market as an alternative investment asset may become part of the capital market, thereby attracting more institutional funds and retail investors to participate.

3.2. Continuous innovation and expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi)

Although decentralized finance (DeFi) has experienced relatively complex market adjustments in the past two years, with the continuous maturity of technology and the expansion of application scenarios, the DeFi ecosystem is expected to usher in a new outbreak point in the second half of 2025. With the continuous advancement of Layer 2 solutions, cross-chain interoperability and privacy protection technologies, DeFi has achieved significant improvements in scalability, cost-effectiveness and security, attracting more institutional participants.

Especially in the fields of decentralized lending, derivatives trading, and synthetic assets, the DeFi market has gradually begun to penetrate into the gray area of the traditional financial market. For example, with the innovation of the DeFi protocol, institutional funds can be hedged through on-chain derivatives, and investors can also participate in the market in a more flexible and low-cost way. This development potential will help promote a structural rebound in the crypto market in the second half of the year.

3.3. Continued entry of institutional investors

In the process of the crypto market maturing, the entry of institutional investors is undoubtedly one of the most critical factors. From Bitcoin ETF to ETH futures, and then to more and more institutional funds gradually increasing their holdings of crypto assets, the inflow of institutions has brought more funds and a robust risk management mechanism to the market. With the further clarification of the regulatory framework and the gradual opening of the capital market, more and more traditional financial institutions will participate in the investment and custody of crypto assets.

In addition, some large companies (such as payment giants, Internet platforms, investment banks, etc.) have gradually realized the strategic significance of crypto assets in diversified asset allocation. This not only means that the capital pool of the crypto market is continuing to expand, but also indicates that the crypto market is gradually moving towards the mainstream of the traditional financial market. In the second half of the year, as more institutions recognize and invest in crypto assets, the momentum of the market rebound will be further enhanced.

3.4. Breakthrough and maturity of blockchain technology applications

The long-term development of the crypto market depends not only on price fluctuations, but also on the practical application of blockchain technology. In 2025, blockchain has made significant progress in the application of finance, supply chain, medical care, copyright management and other fields. In particular, in the application of cross-border payments, smart contracts and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain technology is constantly breaking down the barriers of traditional industries and promoting the scale and maturity of the crypto asset market.

The success of these technological applications, especially in the financial technology and business fields, will further promote the market demand for crypto assets. In the second half of 2025, as blockchain technology continues to make breakthroughs, its role in the real economy will become more prominent, helping the crypto market recover and rebound.

With the combination of the above factors, the crypto market has strong potential for rebound in the second half of 2025, driven by multiple favorable factors. The market recovery may be more significant, especially with the support of institutional investors, technological progress and the global economys shift to monetary easing, the crypto market is expected to usher in a broader space for development.

Chapter 4: Differentiation Trends of Major Chains and Assets

4.1 Redefiniciónning the “safe haven properties” of Bitcoin and Ethereum

In this round of macroeconomic turmoil, Bitcoin has once again been defined by the market as digital gold and an anti-inflation asset. Especially against the backdrop of widening divergences in monetary policies among global central banks and frequent geopolitical conflicts, BTC has shown a relative ability to resist declines.

Ethereum has gradually become synonymous with digital financial platform. With the enhanced L2 scalability, mature Restaking mechanism, and the explosion of DA (data availability) layer, the value logic of Ethereum ecosystem has gradually shifted from Gas fee income to on-chain economic operation infrastructure. In the future, Bitcoin will have more global reserve asset attributes, and Ethereum may carry more Web3 infrastructure and financial innovation.

4.2 Solana and the Meme Experiment of “High-Performance Chain”

The Solana chain experienced a period of explosive growth in the Meme craze and on-chain innovation from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. High TPS, high user engagement, and low gas fees make it a popular public chain for Meme speculation and emerging DApp deployment. However, as the market adjusts, on-chain funds and projects gradually diverge, and Solana projects with substantial ecology (such as Jupiter and Tensor) begin to distance themselves from pure Meme coins, and Solana enters a new stage of in-depth ecological construction. Similar public chains include Base, Sui, Aptos, etc., all of which face the test of ecological precipitation after the peak of hype.

4.3 Layer 2 and cross-chain technology: multi-chain collaboration becomes a trend

Ethereum Layer 2 solutions represented by Arbitrum and Optimism have significantly improved transaction efficiency and reduced costs, and the on-chain interactive experience is close to that of centralized apps. As ZK Rollup becomes more mature (such as zkSync and Starknet), the synergy of multi-chain coexistence + cross-chain liquidity protocols (such as LayerZero and Wormhole) will continue to increase. In the future, users will no longer focus on which chain it is on, but on whether it is easy to use, safe, and has sufficient liquidity. This brings huge development space for cross-chain assets, unified wallets, and aggregated liquidity protocols.

In general, the differentiation of assets and chains in the crypto market will become more obvious in the second half of 2025. With the advancement of technology and changes in market demand, multiple public chains will compete to occupy market share, and the application scenarios of various digital assets will become increasingly rich. The differentiation trend of the crypto market not only promotes the diversified development of different asset classes, but also accelerates the maturity and improvement of the overall market structure.

Chapter 5: Outlook and Strategic Recommendations – Will the second half of the year usher in a new round of market trends?

As 2025 gradually unfolds, after experiencing the turbulence and adjustments in the early stage, the expectations of market participants for the future are gradually shifting towards a positive direction. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, whether the crypto market can usher in a new round of market rebound depends not only on changes in the macro economy, but also on the progress of blockchain technology, market liquidity and adjustments to the policy environment. Against this background, we put forward the following strategic suggestions to help market participants seize future investment opportunities.

5.1. Main driving factors: macroeconomics, technological progress and capital flows

To determine whether the crypto market can usher in a new round of rebound, we first need to clarify several key driving factors:

Macroeconomic recovery: As the global economy gradually recovers from the post-pandemic recession, monetary and fiscal policies of various countries may also see easing changes. Especially in the United States and Europe, loose monetary policies may lead to more funds flowing into the crypto market. In addition, as uncertainty in global financial markets and volatility of traditional assets increase, more and more investors are turning to crypto assets as a safe haven option.

Technological innovation and network upgrade: The continuous innovation of blockchain technology, especially the technological upgrade of public chains such as Ethereum 2.0, Solana and Polkadot, will bring higher transaction efficiency and lower costs to the market, which will enhance the attractiveness of crypto assets. At the same time, the maturity of Layer 2 technology, the strengthening of cross-chain protocols, and the continuous development of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) may become important technical forces to promote the market rebound.

Liquidity and Institutional Participation: As institutional investors gradually enter the crypto market, the liquidity of the market will also be improved. The participation of institutional funds can not only provide deeper market liquidity, but also improve the stability and maturity of the market. Especially after the launch of financial derivatives such as ETFs and futures, more and more traditional investors have begun to participate, which has injected new vitality into the crypto market.

5.2. Key factors for the rebound in the second half of the year

Although the outlook for the crypto market is promising, whether a new round of market rebound can be ushered in in the second half of the year still depends on the superposition of several key factors:

Policy clarification: Currently, there is still uncertainty in the regulatory policies for the crypto market worldwide. Although some countries have begun to provide a clear regulatory framework for the crypto market, other countries are still in a wait-and-see state. Further clarification of regulatory policies, especially for innovative areas such as stablecoins, DeFi and NFT, will have a profound impact on the market. If major economies such as the United States, Europe, Asia and other regions introduce more friendly policies and positively guía crypto assets, market sentiment and capital inflows will improve significantly.

Improvement in market sentiment: In the second half of 2025, the recovery of crypto market sentiment will be an important prerequisite for a market rebound. Compared with 2024, market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimistic to neutral, and investors recognition of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the participation of more investors, market sentiment is expected to improve further, which will in turn trigger capital inflows. This process may be gradually realized with the support of technological innovation and policies, and ultimately drive up market prices.

Driven by large capital: The involvement of large capital, especially the participation of institutional investors, will be another key factor in the rebound of the crypto market. In the second half of 2025, with the participation of more financial institutions and large capital, the liquidity and flow scale of the market will increase significantly. Especially with the booming development of derivatives markets such as ETFs and futures, the volatility of the market may decrease, and the inflow of funds and the stability of the market will be further enhanced.

Maturity of decentralized finance (DeFi): As an important part of the crypto market, decentralized finance (DeFi) may see further development in the second half of 2025. The improvement of security, liquidity and user experience of DeFi protocols will attract more investors and developers to participate. The expansion of DeFi platforms and decentralized financial services will bring new impetus to the entire crypto market, especially in the innovation of cross-chain transactions and DeFi derivatives.

5.3. Strategy Recommendations

In the face of a possible rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025, investors should formulate corresponding investment strategies based on the markets potential and risks. Here are several feasible strategic suggestions:

Stick to long-term investment in mainstream assets: Despite the presence of a large number of emerging chains and assets in the market, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the main force in the crypto market. As digital gold, Bitcoins position as a safe-haven asset will not be easily shaken. Ethereum continues to dominate the development of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum is still a sound strategy, especially when market sentiment improves, the return potential of mainstream assets is still considerable.

Focus on innovative chains and emerging assets: Investors with a higher risk appetite can consider investing in public chains and assets with technological innovation and high growth potential. For example, chains such as Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot are attracting more and more attention from developers and investors. These chains provide different technical solutions from Ethereum, with higher transaction efficiency and lower transaction costs, so their market performance may exceed expectations, especially in applications in areas such as DeFi and NFT.

Strengthen the allocation of stablecoins and DeFi assets: As an important part of the crypto market, stablecoins and DeFi assets also provide investors with new investment opportunities. The application scenarios of stablecoins will be further expanded, becoming an important medium for cross-chain transactions and decentralized finance. DeFi protocols and assets may become new market growth points. Investors can consider allocating some high-quality DeFi tokens to share the growth dividends of the DeFi ecosystem.

Pay attention to policy dynamics and regulatory risks: Investors should always pay attention to policy changes in the global crypto market, especially regulatory policies for stablecoins, DeFi, and NFT. Policy support and constraints will directly affect the capital inflow and development direction of the market. Actively paying attention to regulatory progress and quickly adjusting investment strategies after the policy is clear will help avoid policy risks and seize potential investment opportunities.

In summary, the potential for a rebound in the crypto market in the second half of 2025 is still great, but whether a new round of market conditions can be ushered in depends on the intertwined influence of multiple factors. From macroeconomic recovery, technological progress, capital liquidity to policy clarification, all factors are providing momentum for the recovery of the crypto market. In this context, investors should flexibly adjust their strategies and continue to pay attention to market changes and potential opportunities.

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto market macro research report: In the post-bull market era, the shadow of the trade war is gradually fading, and there may be a rebound in the second half of the year​

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